Wild Card Weekend delivered record-breaking drama. Four games featured comeback victories, with three game-winning touchdowns scored in the final two minutes — an NFL record for any single postseason round. Now eight teams remain in the hunt for Super Bowl LX.
The stakes get higher in the Divisional Round. One loss ends the season. Home field advantage becomes crucial. Elite defenses will dominate. Star players must deliver under pressure.
The Buffalo Bills travel to Denver after breaking a 33-year road playoff drought. The San Francisco 49ers face their toughest challenge without George Kittle. The Chicago Bears look to continue their comeback magic at Soldier Field. The Houston Texans ride a 10-game winning streak into Foxborough.
All four games take place this weekend. Saturday brings two matchups. Sunday delivers two more battles. The winners advance to the Conference Championships on January 25.
Divisional Round Weekend 2026 Quick Picks Table
| Round | Date | Matchup | Time (ET) | TV | Our Pick | Predicted Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Divisional | Sat, Jan 17 | Bills at Broncos | 4:30 PM | CBS | Broncos | Denver 23, Buffalo 20 |
| NFC Divisional | Sat, Jan 17 | 49ers at Seahawks | 8:00 PM | FOX | Seahawks | Seattle 24, San Francisco 13 |
| AFC Divisional | Sun, Jan 18 | Texans at Patriots | 3:00 PM | ESPN/ABC | Patriots | New England 20, Houston 17 |
| NFC Divisional | Sun, Jan 18 | Rams at Bears | 6:30 PM | NBC | Rams | Los Angeles 31, Chicago 27 |
Also Check: 2026 NFL Postseason full schedule and our 2026 NFL Playoffs Predictor
Divisional Round NFL Game by Game Picks and Analysis
Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos
Saturday, January 17 | 4:30 PM ET | CBS
Spread: Bills -1.5 | Total: 46.5
The most shocking line makes Denver home underdogs. The top-seeded Broncos catch points at Mile High. Buffalo survived Jacksonville 27-24. Josh Allen delivered three total touchdowns but left the game banged up.
Allen is dealing with knee, shoulder and foot injuries. The Bills lost receiver Gabe Davis to a torn ACL. Their receiving corps is decimated according to analysts. Buffalo managed just 79 rushing yards against Jacksonville. Denver’s defense will be tougher.
The Broncos led the NFL with 68 sacks. Their pass rush is historically dominant. Denver ranks second against the run. The altitude at Mile High creates problems for visiting teams. The Broncos went 8-1 at home. They are 2-0 as home underdogs this season.
Allen grades poorly under pressure. His PFF rating drops to 57.8 when defenders close in. Buffalo ranks 28th in rushing EPA over the last four weeks. They cannot establish the run. That forces Allen to drop back against the 68-sack defense.
Denver is 11-2 in one-score games. Bo Nix ranks near the bottom in air yards but the Broncos are third in YAC. Sean Payton knows how to dial up plays at critical moments. The Broncos get revenge for last year’s 31-7 playoff loss.
Our Pick: Denver 23, Buffalo 20
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Saturday, January 17 | 8:00 PM ET | FOX
Spread: Seahawks -7 | Total: 45.5
The rubber match between NFC West rivals. These teams split their regular season meetings. San Francisco won 17-13 in Week 1. Seattle dominated 13-3 in Week 18 to clinch the top seed.
George Kittle tore his Achilles during the Wild Card victory. The All-Pro tight end is out for the playoffs. Kittle was the heart of San Francisco’s offense. He provided elite blocking and receiving. Backup Jake Tonges must fill impossible shoes.
Kyle Shanahan keeps winning despite injuries. San Francisco upset the defending champion Eagles. The 49ers never miss the NFC Championship under Shanahan when they make the playoffs. That streak faces its toughest test.
The Seahawks own the NFL’s best scoring defense. They allowed just 17.2 points per game. Seattle gave up only 3.7 yards per carry and nine rushing touchdowns all season. The pass rush recorded 47 sacks.
Seattle held the 49ers to 173 total yards in Week 18. San Francisco managed just nine first downs. The Seahawks decoded Shanahan’s offense. They had a bye week to prepare even more. Lumen Field crowd noise rattles opponents.
Seattle has reached the Super Bowl all three times as the NFC’s top seed. Sam Darnold has matured. The 49ers must create turnovers to have a chance without Kittle.
Our Pick: Seattle 24, San Francisco 13
Houston Texans at New England Patriots
Sunday, January 18 | 3:00 PM ET | ESPN/ABC
Spread: Patriots -2.5 | Total: 44.5
Elite defense meets elite defense at Gillette Stadium. Houston rides a 10-game winning streak. The Texans demolished Pittsburgh 30-6. Their defense held the Steelers to 175 yards and scored two defensive touchdowns.
The Texans’ offense remains a concern. C.J. Stroud looked panicked against Pittsburgh. He committed three turnovers and fumbled five times. The offense managed just two touchdowns. One came in garbage time. Stroud is 0-2 with zero touchdowns in Divisional Round games. Nico Collins is likely out.
New England’s defense is peaking. They held opponents to 20 points or fewer in six of their last eight games. The Patriots crushed the Chargers 16-3. Los Angeles managed only 206 total yards and converted one of 10 third downs.
Drake Maye has exceeded expectations as a rookie. He led the league in completion percentage and passer rating. Maye looks confident and poised. The Patriots’ offense operates better than Houston’s.
Mike Vrabel transformed this team to 15-3. Gillette Stadium will be freezing cold. That environment favors New England. Houston has elite pass rushers in Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. They combined for 27 sacks.
The Texans’ defense will keep this close. They have not allowed more than 16 points in five straight road games. The Patriots’ home advantage makes the difference.
Our Pick: New England 20, Houston 17
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears
Sunday, January 18 | 6:30 PM ET | NBC
Spread: Rams -3.5 | Total: 51.5
The highest-scoring game features two comeback kings. The Rams survived Carolina 34-31. Matthew Stafford led a game-winning touchdown drive in the final two minutes. The Bears erased an 18-point deficit. Chicago scored 25 fourth-quarter points to beat Green Bay 31-27.
Los Angeles scored 518 points during the regular season. That led the NFL. Stafford threw for 304 yards and three touchdowns against Carolina. Puka Nacua had 111 yards. The Rams have Davante Adams and Kyren Williams too.
Stafford sprained his index finger on his throwing hand. X-rays came back negative. He will play but single-digit temperatures are expected in Chicago. Cold weather could affect his grip. Wind gusts may reach 30 miles per hour.
Chicago won seven games after trailing in the final five minutes. Caleb Williams is clutch in crunch time. The rookie set a Bears postseason record with 361 passing yards. Williams led the historic rally against Green Bay.
Both defenses have major issues. The Rams allowed Carolina to move the ball easily. Bryce Young threw for 304 yards. Chicago’s defense ranks 29th. Green Bay scored 21 first-half points.
The Bears are 7-2 at Soldier Field. They excel as home underdogs. The cold weather could neutralize passing. The Rams have more weapons and a veteran quarterback. Stafford’s playoff experience makes the difference.
Our Pick: Los Angeles 31, Chicago 27
2026 NFL Divisional Round Games Storylines
George Kittle’s loss changes everything for San Francisco. The 49ers must win at Seattle without their offensive centerpiece. Kittle tore his Achilles during the Wild Card win. He will miss the rest of the playoffs and likely most of 2026.
Josh Allen battles multiple injuries. He tweaked his knee against Jacksonville. His shoulder took a hit. He has a foot issue. The Bills lost Gabe Davis to a torn ACL. Allen must spread the ball around to win in Denver.
Matthew Stafford’s finger injury becomes concerning in Chicago’s brutal cold. Single-digit temperatures affect grip strength. Stafford may struggle with velocity and accuracy. The Rams could shift toward the running game.
C.J. Stroud threw three turnovers against Pittsburgh. Houston managed just two offensive touchdowns. Stroud has never won a Divisional Round game. Nico Collins is likely out. The Patriots’ defense will make life difficult.
The Bears won seven games after trailing in the final five minutes. The comeback against Green Bay was their most impressive. Chicago trailed 21-3 at halftime. Caleb Williams delivers when pressure is highest.
Key Stats & Trends
All four games feature elite defenses. The Broncos led the NFL with 68 sacks. The Seahawks allowed just 17.2 points per game. The Texans scored two defensive touchdowns. The Patriots held the Chargers to 206 yards.
Three games have low totals. Only the Rams-Bears game projects to be high scoring. Both teams struggled to stop opponents. Their offensive firepower should overcome defensive weaknesses.
The turnover battle decides playoff games. Houston forced three turnovers against Pittsburgh. San Francisco must create turnovers to beat Seattle. New England excels at taking the ball away.
Third down conversions control games. Buffalo converted 50 percent against Jacksonville. San Francisco hit 54.5 percent against Philadelphia. The Chargers managed just 10 percent against New England.
Home teams dominate the Divisional Round. The top seeds earned their bye weeks. The extra week of rest matters. Players heal from injuries. Coaches prepare better.
How Does the Divisional Round Playoff Work?
The Divisional Round is the second week of the NFL playoffs. Four games are played across Saturday and Sunday. Winners advance to the Conference Championships. Losers go home.
The top two seeds in each conference earned first-round byes. They received an extra week to rest. The bottom four seeds played in the Wild Card Round. Winners move on to face the top seeds.
Home field advantage goes to the higher seed. The Broncos and Seahawks are the number one seeds. The Patriots and Bears are the number two seeds. All four lower seeds must win on the road.
Each game is single elimination. Overtime rules apply if the score is tied. Both teams get a possession unless the first team scores a touchdown. Playoff games cannot end in a tie.
Winners advance to Conference Championship weekend on Sunday, January 25. Those winners meet in Super Bowl LX on February 8 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California.
2026 NFL Wild Card Games FAQs
What is the weather forecast for each Divisional Round game?
Denver will have cold temperatures at Mile High. Seattle experiences typical Pacific Northwest weather. Foxborough will be freezing cold. Chicago expects single-digit temperatures with 30 mph wind gusts. The brutal cold could impact both passing games.
Has a number six seed ever won the Super Bowl?
Yes. The Green Bay Packers won Super Bowl XLV as a six seed in 2010. The Pittsburgh Steelers won Super Bowl XL. Nine Wild Card teams have won championships since 1990. The Bills and 49ers can add to that total this year.
Which teams have the best Super Bowl odds?
The Seattle Seahawks have the best NFC odds. The Los Angeles Rams have the second-best NFC odds. The New England Patriots lead the AFC. The Buffalo Bills are the second AFC choice. The Denver Broncos are fifth overall at plus-450.
What happens if a game goes to overtime?
Both teams get a possession unless the first team scores a touchdown. The first team kicks a field goal and the second team gets a chance. After both teams have one possession the next score wins. Playoff games cannot end in a tie.
When do Conference Championship games take place?
The AFC Championship and NFC Championship both happen on Sunday, January 25, 2026. The exact times will be determined after the Divisional Round. Winners advance to Super Bowl LX on February 8.
How many road teams typically win in the Divisional Round?
Home teams usually dominate the Divisional Round. The top seeds earned their advantages. The extra rest matters significantly. Home field becomes crucial in January weather. The 49ers and Bills are road teams with strong chances this weekend.
The Divisional Round delivers compelling playoff football. Our predictions favor home teams. Denver, Seattle, New England and Los Angeles should advance. The playoffs remain unpredictable.
