2026 NFL Wild Card Predictions: Expert Picks and Analysis for All 6 Games

The NFL playoffs start this weekend with six Wild Card matchups that will determine which teams advance to face the top-seeded Seahawks and Broncos. Both Seattle and Denver finished 14-3 and earned first-round byes while twelve teams battle for survival from January 10-12.

This year’s Wild Card Weekend features division rivals settling scores, a defending Super Bowl champion protecting their title, and veteran quarterbacks chasing one more playoff moment.

We break down every matchup with current odds, injury updates, and expert predictions to help you understand what to expect.

Wild Card Weekend 2026 Quick Picks Table

Date	Matchup	Time (ET)	TV	Our Pick	Predicted Score
Sat, Jan 10	Rams at Panthers	4:30 PM	FOX	Rams	34-20
Sat, Jan 10	Packers at Bears	8:00 PM	Prime Video	Bears	24-22
Sun, Jan 11	Bills at Jaguars	1:00 PM	CBS	Jaguars	30-27
Sun, Jan 11	49ers at Eagles	4:30 PM	FOX	Eagles	27-21
Sun, Jan 11	Chargers at Patriots	8:00 PM	NBC	Patriots	26-20
Mon, Jan 12	Texans at Steelers	8:00 PM	ESPN/ABC	Texans	24-17

Also Check: 2026 NFL Postseason full schedule

Wild Card Game by Game Picks and Analysis

Saturday Games (Jan 10, 2026)

Game 1: (5) Los Angeles Rams at (4) Carolina Panthers

Spread: Rams -10.5 | Total: 46.5

The Panthers backed into the playoffs at 8-9 by winning the NFC South. Carolina lost two of their final three games and averaged just 16 points over the last four contests. They did shock the Rams 31-28 at home in Week 13 behind Bryce Young’s three touchdown passes and two Matthew Stafford interceptions.

This feels different now. Stafford leads the NFL with 4,707 passing yards and a career-best 46-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His quarterback rating of 109.2 ranks second in the league. The Rams get wide receiver Davante Adams back from a hamstring injury. Adams leads the NFL with 14 receiving touchdowns despite playing just 14 games. He caught four passes for 58 yards and two scores against Carolina in Week 13.

Head coach Sean McVay confirmed Adams is ready to go after missing three games. The Rams also get back safety Quentin Lake and tight end Terrance Ferguson. Los Angeles will be at full strength on offense for the first time in weeks.

The experience gap between Stafford and Young matters in playoff football. Stafford has won a Super Bowl and thrives in big moments. Young has never played a postseason game. Carolina’s defense allowed 102 points in their final four weeks. The Rams have covered the spread in their last seven games played in January.

McVay acknowledged the team felt “humbled” by that Week 13 loss and wants to exact revenge. The Rams are simply better at every position. Stafford’s MVP-caliber season continues as Los Angeles dominates the second half.

Pick: Rams 34, Panthers 20

Game 2: (7) Green Bay Packers at (2) Chicago Bears

Spread: Bears -1 | Total: 47.5

The NFL’s oldest rivalry gets a rubber match in the playoffs. Green Bay won the first meeting 28-21 in Week 14 at Lambeau Field. Chicago took the Week 16 rematch 22-16 in overtime after Jordan Love left with a concussion. Backup Malik Willis played well but the Bears mounted an incredible comeback from a 10-point deficit.

Love returns for this game after resting in Week 18. The Packers rested 17 starters in their meaningless finale and are as healthy as they’ve been in months. Green Bay enters on a four-game losing streak with their last win coming against these same Bears in Week 14.

Chicago secured the No. 2 seed despite losing their final two games. The Bears are 6-1 in their last seven home games at Soldier Field. First-year offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has Caleb Williams playing with confidence. Williams has eight career fourth-quarter comebacks, tying Bo Nix’s NFL record for quarterbacks in their first two seasons.

The Packers’ defense collapsed after Micah Parsons suffered a season-ending injury. Green Bay ranked in the top 10 on defense through 12 weeks but fell to bottom-five in the final six weeks. Chicago’s defense leads the league in takeaways but also allows the second-most receptions of 20-plus yards.

This series has been defined by close finishes. Both regular-season games came down to the final possession. The Week 16 overtime thriller saw the Bears score 16 points in the final 1:59 of regulation and overtime. Green Bay had a 99% win probability before Chicago’s incredible rally.

Home-field advantage matters in division rivalry games. Chicago’s crowd will be rocking for their first playoff game at Soldier Field since 2018. The Bears’ defense forces one key turnover late and Williams leads another game-winning drive.

Pick: Bears 24, Packers 22

Sunday Games (Jan 11, 2026)

Game 3: (6) Buffalo Bills at (3) Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: Bills -1.5 | Total: 51.5

Jacksonville hasn’t lost since November 9. The Jaguars won eight straight games to finish 13-4 and capture the AFC South title. Buffalo went 5-1 over its last six contests and sits at 12-5. Both teams bring momentum into this matchup.

The total of 51.5 is the highest of Wild Card Weekend for good reason. Josh Allen and Trevor Lawrence combined for 77 total touchdowns this season. Jacksonville averaged 33.6 points during their eight-game winning streak. Buffalo ranked fourth in scoring offense all season.

Allen owns an incredible playoff resume at home with a 5-0 record in Wild Card games since 2020. The road tells a different story. Allen is 0-4 in playoff games away from Buffalo. Three of those losses came against Kansas City but the pattern is real. Allen has never won a postseason game outside of western New York.

Lawrence is playing the best football of his career under first-year head coach Liam Coen. He set a franchise record with 38 total touchdowns this season. Over his last six games Lawrence totaled 19 touchdowns and just one turnover. The offense is clicking at the perfect time.

Jacksonville boasts the NFL’s top-ranked rush defense. The Jaguars will focus on stopping James Cook and forcing Allen to beat them through the air. Buffalo’s defense has been inconsistent in past playoff runs and struggled to get stops in big moments.

The Jaguars are 2-0 all-time in playoff matchups against Buffalo. Home teams have dominated this series when playoff stakes are on the line. The crowd at EverBank Stadium creates a hostile environment for a Bills team with road playoff demons.

Pick: Jaguars 30, Bills 27

Game 4: (6) San Francisco 49ers at (3) Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Eagles -3.5 | Total: 46.5

The defending Super Bowl champion Eagles host the 49ers in a rematch of the 2022 NFC Championship Game. Philadelphia won 31-7 that day after Brock Purdy tore his elbow ligament. The Eagles went on to win Super Bowl LIX and return with most of their core intact.

Purdy took a hard hit on the final play of Week 18 against Seattle. He suffered a left shoulder stinger in the 13-3 loss that cost San Francisco the NFC’s top seed. His status is the biggest question mark of Wild Card Weekend. The 49ers would turn to backup Mac Jones if Purdy cannot play or is limited.

Left tackle Trent Williams and wide receiver Ricky Pearsall are expected to return from injury. Williams anchors the offensive line and his presence is critical for protecting Purdy. San Francisco needs all hands on deck to compete in Philadelphia.

Jalen Hurts has been dominant at Lincoln Financial Field throughout his career. He led the Eagles to a Super Bowl victory last season and excels both through the air and on the ground. Philadelphia’s offense centers around Hurts and Saquon Barkley controlling the clock and wearing down opponents.

The Eagles’ defense allowed the NFL’s third-fewest points entering Week 18. The unit features Pro Bowl talent at every level with Jalen Carter, Zack Baun, Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell all earning honors. Philadelphia has been elite against the pass.

San Francisco’s defense struggled lately by allowing 102 points over their final four weeks. They rank last in the NFL with just 20 sacks and only six interceptions all season. The 49ers need to slow down Barkley and Hurts but lack the personnel to consistently get stops.

Philadelphia’s championship experience matters. The Eagles know what it takes to win in January and won’t be fazed by the moment. The crowd creates a hostile environment and Barkley grinds out tough yards in the fourth quarter.

Pick: Eagles 27, 49ers 21

Game 5: (7) Los Angeles Chargers at (2) New England Patriots

Spread: Patriots -3.5 | Total: 46.5

This matchup features two of the NFL’s best young quarterbacks. Drake Maye is a favorite to win league MVP after leading the Patriots to their first AFC East title since 2019. He ranks first in quarterback rating and leads an explosive passing attack. This is New England’s first home playoff game at Gillette Stadium since the Tom Brady era ended.

Justin Herbert has immense talent but a troubling playoff resume. He’s 0-2 in postseason games with a 52.0 percent completion rate. Herbert has thrown just two touchdown passes and four interceptions in playoff action. All four interceptions came in an embarrassing 32-12 Wild Card loss to Houston last season.

New England scored 28.8 points per game this season compared to the Chargers’ 21.6 average. The Patriots rank seventh in third-down percentage and first in fourth-down percentage. Los Angeles struggled against playoff teams with all three losses since Week 11 coming against postseason qualifiers.

The Patriots dominated on the ground over their last five games by averaging 168.6 rushing yards per game and 5.8 yards per carry. Running back Rhamondre Stevenson rushed for 131 yards and two touchdowns in Week 18 alone. Rookie TreVeyon Henderson is a home-run threat who scored four rushing touchdowns of 50-plus yards this season.

The Chargers must travel from sunny California to cold New England in January. That cross-country trip for a winter playoff game is never easy. Los Angeles struggled on the road against good teams all season. New England has significant home-field advantage in both weather and crowd support.

The Patriots have better coaching and more playoff experience. New England’s roster includes several veterans with championship pedigree who know what it takes to win in January. Maye outplays Herbert in prime time and the running game controls the clock.

Pick: Patriots 26, Chargers 20

Monday Game (Jan 12, 2026)

Game 6: (5) Houston Texans at (4) Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: Texans -3.5 | Total: 39.5

The 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers possibly plays his final NFL game on Monday night. Rodgers led the Steelers to the playoffs with a dramatic Week 18 comeback against Baltimore. He completed 11 of 14 passes for 133 yards and the game-winning touchdown in the fourth quarter of that 26-24 victory.

Houston finished with the second-best scoring defense in the NFL by allowing just 17.4 points per game. The Texans enter on a nine-game winning streak and haven’t lost since early November. Edge rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter can wreck opposing game plans with their pass rush. Houston ranks first in total defense and second in defensive DVOA.

C.J. Stroud has taken a big step forward in his second season. He ranked 10th in EPA+CPOE composite over the final six weeks and threw for the seventh-most air yards. Stroud averaged a respectable 7.4 yards per attempt down the stretch. The Texans’ offense has done enough to win during the nine-game streak with an elite defense backing them up.

Rodgers averaged just 6.5 yards per attempt over the final six weeks. His average fell to 5.7 yards per attempt over the past three weeks. Age has caught up to his arm strength and mobility. The Steelers ranked 26th in the NFL on offense and struggled to score points consistently.

Wide receiver DK Metcalf returns from a two-game suspension and will be Pittsburgh’s primary weapon. He’ll likely match up against elite cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. However the Steelers have a below-average running game and need to attack through the air against Houston’s secondary.

Mike Tomlin is 25-9-3 against the spread as a home underdog. The Steelers haven’t lost at home on Monday Night Football since 1991. They also haven’t won a playoff game since 2016. One of those streaks ends on Monday night.

Houston is the better team in every measurable category. The Texans’ defense will overwhelm Rodgers and force him into mistakes. Stroud does enough on offense to pull away in the second half. Rodgers showed flashes against Baltimore but sustaining that for 60 minutes against this Houston defense is a different challenge.

Pick: Texans 24, Steelers 17

2026 NFL Wild Card Games Storylines

Aaron Rodgers’ Potential Farewell Tour – The 42-year-old quarterback might be playing his final NFL game on Monday night. Rodgers has achieved everything except another Super Bowl ring since leaving Green Bay. The comeback win against Baltimore showed he still has magic in his arm but those vintage moments are rarer now. He faces the Texans’ second-ranked defense in a hostile road environment.

Josh Allen’s Road Playoff Curse – Buffalo’s superstar is 0-4 in playoff games away from home. Allen has been brilliant at Highmark Stadium with a 5-0 record in Wild Card games. Jacksonville presents a difficult test with the NFL’s top rush defense and an eight-game winning streak. Allen has the talent to break through but the mental hurdle is real.

Defending Champions Begin Title Defense – Philadelphia enters the playoffs as the reigning Super Bowl champion. The Eagles won it all last season and return with most of their core intact. Jalen Hurts has been dominant at Lincoln Financial Field and the defense ranks third in points allowed. The 49ers provide a stern test but the Eagles have home-field advantage and championship experience.

Drake Maye’s MVP Season Continues – New England’s second-year quarterback is a favorite to win league MVP. Maye led the Patriots to their first AFC East title since 2019 and ranks first in quarterback rating. This is his chance to announce himself as the league’s next great quarterback. Justin Herbert has more experience but a troubling playoff resume stands in his way.

Packers-Bears Rivalry Rubber Match – The NFL’s oldest rivalry gets a playoff edition. These division foes split their regular-season meetings with both games coming down to the final possession. Jordan Love returns from his concussion for the Packers while Caleb Williams plays with confidence for the Bears. Chicago has home-field advantage but Green Bay owns this rivalry historically.

Davante Adams’ Playoff Return – The Rams get their second-best receiver back at the perfect time. Adams missed three games with a hamstring injury but is healthy for the Wild Card Round. He leads the NFL with 14 receiving touchdowns despite playing just 14 games. A fully healthy Adams alongside Puka Nacua gives the Rams the most dangerous receiving duo in the playoffs.

Key Stats & Trends

Home teams hold a significant advantage in Wild Card Weekend. Carolina is 5-3 at home but just 3-6 on the road. Chicago went 6-2 at Soldier Field compared to 5-4 away from home. Jacksonville finished 8-1 at home and just 5-3 on the road. Philadelphia is nearly unbeatable at Lincoln Financial Field. New England finished 6-3 at Gillette Stadium. Pittsburgh went 6-2 at Acrisure Stadium this season.

Experience matters in January. Aaron Rodgers has 22 playoff appearances in his career. Matthew Stafford won Super Bowl LVI with the Rams and has five career playoff wins. Josh Allen has seven playoff wins without a Super Bowl appearance. Jalen Hurts won the Super Bowl last season and has six career playoff victories. Trevor Lawrence has just one playoff win while Bryce Young, Caleb Williams and Drake Maye have never played a postseason game.

Teams that finish strong carry momentum into the playoffs. Houston’s nine-game winning streak is the longest active streak in the NFL. Jacksonville won eight straight to close the season. Buffalo went 5-1 over its last six games. New England won three straight to end the year. Green Bay enters on a four-game losing streak while Carolina lost two of its final three games.

The turnover battle almost always determines playoff games. Chicago leads the NFL in takeaways with a ball-hawking defense. Houston’s defense creates pressure and forces mistakes. Los Angeles ranked sixth in turnovers forced including 19 interceptions. Buffalo’s defense has struggled to get stops in past playoff runs.

2026 NFL Wild Card Games FAQs

Wild Card Weekend delivers six compelling matchups with playoff survival on the line. The Rams should dominate Carolina while the Packers-Bears rivalry game goes down to the wire. Jacksonville could pull the upset over Buffalo as home-field advantage proves decisive across the board.