Week 13 delivered seismic shifts across both conferences through Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Sunday, Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football. The Patriots reclaimed the AFC’s No. 1 seed at 11-2 after defeating the Giants on Monday Night Football.
The Bears jumped to the NFC’s No. 1 seed at 9-3 after defeating Philadelphia on Black Friday. The Jaguars took control of the AFC South while the Ravens claimed the AFC North lead.
Updated: After Monday Night Football, Week 13 (December 2, 2025), 2025 season
Current NFL Playoff Picture Overview
Fourteen teams make the postseason with seven from each conference. The top seed gets a first round bye and home field advantage.
The Patriots jumped to the AFC’s No. 1 seed at 11-2 with greater than 99% playoff probability after their 33-15 Monday Night Football victory over the Giants. The Broncos fell to the No. 2 seed at 10-2 with 99% playoff odds after their overtime win against Washington. The Bears command the NFC’s No. 1 seed at 9-3 with 75% playoff odds after their Black Friday victory over Philadelphia. The Rams sit at the No. 2 seed at 9-3 with 96% playoff probability after their upset loss to Carolina. The Jaguars hold the No. 3 seed at 8-4 and lead the AFC South with 81% playoff odds. The Ravens took control of the AFC North at 6-6 with 69% playoff odds.
Want to test different scenarios? Check out our Free Playoff Picture Simulator for Week 14 to see how each game impacts the playoff race. You can also view today’s rankings and Clinching Outlook at a glance for quick updates on every team’s postseason chances.
AFC Playoff Picture 2025
The AFC playoff race witnessed dramatic movement with the Patriots jumping to the No. 1 seed after their Monday night victory. The Jaguars surged to the No. 3 seed and took control of the AFC South. The Ravens claimed the AFC North lead at 6-6 while the Steelers fell out of playoff position entirely.
AFC Current Standings
| Seed | Team | Record | Division | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patriots | 11-2 | AFC East | >99% |
| 2 | Broncos | 10-2 | AFC West | 99% |
| 3 | Jaguars | 8-4 | AFC South | 81% |
| 4 | Ravens | 6-6 | AFC North | 69% |
| 5 | Chargers | 8-4 | AFC West | 62% |
| 6 | Colts | 8-4 | AFC South | 70% |
| 7 | Bills | 8-4 | AFC East | 91% |
On The Bubble: Texans 7-5 (63%), Steelers 6-6 (30%), Chiefs 6-6 (33%)
New England jumped to the AFC’s No. 1 seed with greater than 99% playoff probability after their commanding 33-15 Monday Night Football victory over the Giants. Drake Maye threw two touchdowns while Marcus Jones returned a punt 94 yards for a score. The Patriots improved to 11-2 and reclaimed the conference’s top seed. New England won their tenth straight game and lead the AFC East by three games over Buffalo. The Patriots became the first team to reach 11 wins and control their destiny for home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Denver fell to the No. 2 seed at 10-2 with 99% playoff probability after their Sunday Night Football overtime victory. The Broncos won their ninth consecutive game and lead the AFC West by two games over Los Angeles. Bo Nix continues his strong performance while leading the Broncos. Denver maintains excellent playoff position despite falling from the top seed. The Broncos face favorable matchups with games against the Raiders and Chiefs in the final weeks.
Jacksonville surged to the No. 3 seed with 81% playoff odds after dominating Tennessee 25-3. Trevor Lawrence threw two touchdowns as the Jaguars improved to 8-4 and took control of the AFC South. Jacksonville now leads the division outright after Indianapolis fell to Houston. The Jaguars have won their last four games and control their division destiny with favorable schedule ahead including another matchup with the Titans and games against the Jets.
Baltimore claimed the AFC North lead at 6-6 with 69% playoff odds despite sitting at the No. 4 seed. The Ravens hold the division over Pittsburgh based on tiebreakers. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens face critical matchups ahead after their Thanksgiving night loss to Cincinnati. Baltimore still has games against Pittsburgh in Weeks 14 and 18 that will decide the division title. The Ravens maintain solid playoff odds and control their division destiny.
Los Angeles improved to 8-4 and holds the No. 5 seed with 62% playoff odds after defeating Las Vegas 31-14. Justin Herbert and the Chargers bounced back with a comfortable victory. Los Angeles trails Denver by two games in the AFC West but maintains a solid wild card position. The Bolts face tough matchups in the coming weeks but control their playoff destiny.
Indianapolis fell to the No. 6 seed at 8-4 with 70% playoff odds after their 20-16 loss to Houston. Daniel Jones threw two touchdowns but the Colts couldn’t overcome the Texans defense. Indianapolis dropped to second place in the AFC South and now trails Jacksonville by one game. The Colts face a brutal remaining schedule with games against playoff contenders but still maintain solid playoff odds.
Buffalo holds the No. 7 seed and final AFC playoff spot with 91% playoff odds after dominating Pittsburgh 26-7. Josh Allen broke the NFL record for career rushing touchdowns by a quarterback with 76 and passed Cam Newton. The Bills rushed for 249 yards and completely controlled the game. Buffalo improved to 8-4 and trails New England by three games in the division race. The Bills have strong playoff odds and control their wild card destiny.
Houston sits just outside the playoffs in the No. 8 position with 63% playoff odds after their 20-16 victory over Indianapolis. The Texans improved to 7-5 and jumped into contention with their fourth straight win. Houston trails Jacksonville by one game in the AFC South and remains dangerous with their elite defense. The Texans maintain solid playoff chances and face favorable matchups ahead.
Pittsburgh fell out of playoff position to the No. 9 spot with just 30% playoff odds after their devastating 26-7 loss to Buffalo. Aaron Rodgers returned from injury but the Steelers offense couldn’t find rhythm. Pittsburgh dropped to 6-6 and now trails Baltimore in the AFC North. The Steelers face an uphill battle with games against the Ravens in Weeks 14 and 18 that will determine their season.
Kansas City remains at the No. 10 position with 33% playoff odds at 6-6 after their Thanksgiving loss to Dallas. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are in serious playoff trouble. Kansas City trails Denver by four games in the AFC West and faces difficult tiebreaker scenarios. The Chiefs must win out to have realistic playoff hopes.
NFC Playoff Picture 2025
The NFC witnessed historic movement as Chicago jumped to the No. 1 seed after Black Friday while the Rams fell to No. 2 after their upset loss to Carolina. The 49ers surged to the No. 7 seed at 9-4 while three NFC West teams hold playoff positions.
NFC Current Standings
| Seed | Team | Record | Division | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bears | 9-3 | NFC North | 75% |
| 2 | Rams | 9-3 | NFC West | 96% |
| 3 | Eagles | 8-4 | NFC East | 94% |
| 4 | Buccaneers | 7-5 | NFC South | 85% |
| 5 | Seahawks | 9-3 | NFC West | 93% |
| 6 | Packers | 8-3-1 | NFC North | 89% |
| 7 | 49ers | 9-4 | NFC West | 92% |
On The Bubble: Lions 7-5 (43%), Cowboys 6-5-1 (17%), Panthers 7-6 (17%)
Chicago commands the NFC’s No. 1 seed with 75% playoff odds after their 24-15 Black Friday victory over Philadelphia. Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson’s offense delivered when it mattered most against the defending Super Bowl champions. The Bears improved to 9-3 and lead the NFC North by half a game over the Packers. Chicago has won nine of their last ten games and positioned themselves as a dangerous playoff contender. The Bears control their division destiny with upcoming matchups against Green Bay twice in the final weeks.
Los Angeles fell to the No. 2 seed at 9-3 with 96% playoff probability after their shocking 31-28 upset loss to Carolina. Matthew Stafford threw three turnovers including two interceptions in his first ugly performance in months. The Rams still lead the NFC West and maintain strong playoff odds. Los Angeles holds a solid chance to clinch a playoff bye despite the loss. The Rams face crucial matchups in the final weeks to secure their division.
Philadelphia dropped to the No. 3 seed with 94% playoff odds after their 24-15 Black Friday loss to Chicago. The Eagles fell to 8-4 but still control the NFC East with a comfortable lead. Jalen Hurts and Vic Fangio’s defense struggled against the Bears physical style. Philadelphia maintains a strong lock on the playoffs and still holds the head to head tiebreaker over the Rams from their September victory.
Tampa Bay holds the No. 4 seed with 85% playoff odds after defeating Arizona 20-17 to end their three game losing streak. Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers improved to 7-5 and maintain control of the NFC South. Tampa Bay leads Carolina by half a game and controls their division destiny. The Bucs face favorable matchups in the final weeks.
Seattle improved to the No. 5 seed at 9-3 with 93% playoff odds after shutting out Minnesota 26-0. Sam Darnold and the Seahawks defense dominated as the Vikings were shut out for the first time since 2007. Seattle trails the Rams in the NFC West based on division record but maintains excellent wild card position. The Seahawks control their playoff destiny with strong finish possible.
Green Bay holds the No. 6 seed with 89% playoff odds at 8-3-1 after their Thanksgiving victory over Detroit. Jordan Love threw four touchdowns in the 31-24 win. The Packers swept the season series against the Lions and gained a crucial head to head tiebreaker. Green Bay trails the Bears by half a game in the NFC North and faces Chicago twice in the final weeks.
San Francisco surged to the No. 7 seed and final playoff spot with 92% playoff odds after dominating Cleveland 26-8. Brock Purdy and the 49ers improved to 9-4 and control their wild card destiny. San Francisco is the third NFC West team in playoff position and maintains strong playoff odds heading into the final stretch.
Detroit sits just outside the playoffs in the No. 8 position with 43% playoff odds at 7-5 after their Thanksgiving loss to Green Bay. The sweep by the Packers significantly hurts Detroit’s playoff chances and tiebreakers. The Lions can still catch Chicago for the NFC North crown with strong finish. Detroit faces crucial matchups in the final weeks to secure a playoff spot.
Dallas sits at the No. 9 position with 17% playoff odds at 6-5-1 after their Thanksgiving upset over Kansas City. The Cowboys won three consecutive games but their path to the playoffs remains difficult. Dallas trails Philadelphia in the NFC East with no remaining games against the Eagles.
Carolina improved to 7-6 and holds 17% playoff odds after their stunning 31-28 upset over the Rams. Bryce Young threw three touchdown passes including two on fourth down to lead the Panthers to victory. Carolina trails Tampa Bay by half a game in the NFC South and faces the Buccaneers twice in the final weeks.
Check out our NFL Week 14 Picks for game by game predictions and winner guides for every matchup this week.
Wild Card Race and Tiebreakers
Tiebreakers decide seeds each week through head to head record, division record, conference record, common opponents and then strength of victory.
Key Tiebreakers:
- Patriots claim No. 1 seed over Broncos at 11-2 record
- Bears hold NFC’s No. 1 seed at 9-3 with 75% playoff odds
- Rams at No. 2 seed at 9-3 with 96% playoff odds after loss to Panthers
- Jaguars lead AFC South at 8-4 as No. 3 seed
- Ravens lead AFC North at 6-6 as No. 4 seed over Steelers
- Packers hold season sweep over Lions crucial for tiebreaker scenarios
- Chargers hold No. 5 over Bills based on conference record
- Three NFC West teams hold playoff positions with Rams at No. 2, Seahawks at No. 5 and 49ers at No. 7
- Steelers sit outside playoffs at No. 9 despite matching Ravens 6-6 record
Projected Playoff Bracket (If the Season Ended Today)
AFC Matchups
- (2) Broncos vs (7) Bills
- (3) Jaguars vs (6) Colts
- (4) Ravens vs (5) Chargers
Bye: Patriots
NFC Matchups
- (2) Rams vs (7) 49ers
- (3) Eagles vs (6) Packers
- (4) Buccaneers vs (5) Seahawks
Bye: Bears
Week 13 Complete Results
Thanksgiving Day Games:
- Packers 31, Lions 24 – Green Bay sweeps Detroit and jumps to 89% playoff odds
- Cowboys 31, Chiefs 28 – Dallas upsets Kansas City and Chiefs fall to 33% odds
- Bengals 32, Ravens 14 – Cincinnati dominates and Baltimore takes AFC North lead at 6-6
Black Friday Game:
- Bears 24, Eagles 15 – Chicago jumps to NFC’s No. 1 seed at 9-3
Sunday Early Games:
- Panthers 31, Rams 28 – Bryce Young throws 3 TDs and Rams fall to No. 2 seed
- 49ers 26, Browns 8 – San Francisco improves to 9-4 and claims No. 7 seed
- Texans 20, Colts 16 – Houston wins fourth straight and Jaguars take AFC South lead
- Jaguars 25, Titans 3 – Jacksonville dominates and improves to 8-4
- Dolphins 21, Saints 17 – Miami wins third straight
- Jets 27, Falcons 24 – Nick Folk hits 56 yard game winner
- Buccaneers 20, Cardinals 17 – Tampa Bay ends three game losing streak
Sunday Late Games:
- Bills 26, Steelers 7 – Josh Allen breaks NFL rushing TD record with 76
- Seahawks 26, Vikings 0 – Seattle shuts out Minnesota for first time since 2007
- Chargers 31, Raiders 14 – Los Angeles improves to 8-4
Sunday Night Football:
- Broncos 27, Commanders 26 (OT) – Denver wins ninth straight at 10-2
Monday Night Football:
- Patriots 33, Giants 15 – New England reclaims AFC’s No. 1 seed at 11-2
Division Race Snapshot
- AFC East: Patriots lead at 11-2 and sit three games ahead of Bills
- AFC North: Ravens lead at 6-6 while Steelers sit at 6-6 outside playoffs
- AFC South: Jaguars lead at 8-4 with Colts at 8-4 and Texans at 7-5
- AFC West: Broncos lead at 10-2 and sit two games ahead of Chargers
- NFC East: Eagles control at 8-4 while Cowboys sit at 6-5-1
- NFC North: Bears lead at 9-3 with Packers at 8-3-1 and Lions at 7-5
- NFC South: Buccaneers lead at 7-5 while Panthers sit at 7-6
- NFC West: Rams lead at 9-3 with Seahawks at 9-3 and 49ers at 9-4
Key Storylines
Patriots Reclaim AFC’s No. 1 Seed
New England jumped to the AFC’s No. 1 seed with greater than 99% playoff probability after their commanding 33-15 Monday Night Football victory over the Giants. Drake Maye threw two touchdowns while Marcus Jones returned a punt 94 yards for a score. The Patriots improved to 11-2 and reclaimed the conference’s top seed. New England won their tenth straight game and became the first team to reach 11 wins. The Patriots control their destiny for home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Bears Command NFC’s No. 1 Seed
Chicago jumped to the NFC’s No. 1 seed with 75% playoff odds after their dominant 24-15 Black Friday victory over Philadelphia. Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson’s offense delivered when it mattered most. The Bears improved to 9-3 and lead the NFC North by half a game. Chicago ran for 281 yards against the defending Super Bowl champions. The Bears have won nine of their last ten games and control their division destiny.
Jaguars Take Control of AFC South
Jacksonville surged to the No. 3 seed and took control of the AFC South with 81% playoff odds after dominating Tennessee 25-3. Trevor Lawrence threw two touchdowns as the Jaguars improved to 8-4. Jacksonville won their fourth straight game and now leads the division outright after Indianapolis fell to Houston. The Jaguars control their division destiny with favorable schedule ahead.
Panthers Stun Rams in Major Upset
Carolina shocked the Rams 31-28 behind Bryce Young’s breakout performance. Young threw three touchdown passes including two on fourth down to lead the Panthers to victory. The upset dropped Los Angeles from the NFC’s No. 1 seed to No. 2 at 9-3. Matthew Stafford threw three turnovers in his first ugly game in months. Carolina improved to 7-6 and trails Tampa Bay by half a game in the NFC South.
Bills Dominate Steelers and Allen Breaks Record
Buffalo crushed Pittsburgh 26-7 behind a dominant rushing attack. Josh Allen broke the NFL record for career rushing touchdowns by a quarterback with 76 and passed Cam Newton. The Bills rushed for 249 yards and improved to 8-4 with 91% playoff odds. Pittsburgh fell to 6-6 and dropped out of playoff position with just 30% playoff odds.
Ravens Take Control of AFC North
Baltimore claimed the AFC North lead at 6-6 with 69% playoff odds despite sitting at the No. 4 seed. The Ravens hold the division over Pittsburgh based on tiebreakers. Baltimore faces critical games against the Steelers in Weeks 14 and 18 that will decide the division title. The Ravens maintain solid playoff odds and control their division destiny.
49ers Surge to No. 7 Seed
San Francisco improved to 9-4 and claimed the final NFC playoff spot with 92% playoff odds after dominating Cleveland 26-8. Brock Purdy led the 49ers to their third straight victory. San Francisco is the third NFC West team in playoff position. The 49ers control their wild card destiny heading into the final stretch.
NFC West Dominance Continues
Three NFC West teams hold playoff positions with the Rams at No. 2, Seahawks at No. 5 and 49ers at No. 7. Los Angeles leads at 9-3 with 96% playoff probability despite their loss to Carolina. Seattle sits at 9-3 with 93% playoff odds. San Francisco stands at 9-4 with 92% odds. The NFC West positioned itself as the NFL’s strongest division.
Teams Eliminated From Playoffs
Five teams were officially eliminated from playoff contention in Week 13:
- Arizona Cardinals (3-9) – Eliminated after loss to Tampa Bay
- Las Vegas Raiders (2-10) – Eliminated after loss to Chargers
- Tennessee Titans (1-11) – Eliminated after loss to Jacksonville
- New Orleans Saints (2-10) – Eliminated after loss to Miami
- New York Giants (2-11) – Eliminated after loss to Patriots on Monday Night Football
Five weeks remain. Every game carries playoff weight. The race for Super Bowl LX reaches its critical stretch with teams fighting for division titles, playoff spots and seeding position.
