Week 15 delivered major shocks across the NFL. The Chiefs missed the playoffs for the first time since 2015. Patrick Mahomes suffered a season-ending ACL tear. The Broncos and Rams clinched the first playoff spots.
Week 16 brings three massive division battles. The Rams visit Seattle on Thursday night with both teams at 11-3. The winner takes control of the NFC West and the top seed. The Bears host Green Bay on Saturday for the NFC North crown. Tampa Bay travels to Carolina with both teams tied at 7-7 in the NFC South.
Division titles get decided this week. Playoff berths are on the line. Here are my picks for all 16 games.
NFL Week 15 Quick Picks Table
| Date | Matchup | Time (ET) | Pick | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, Dec 18 | Rams @ Seahawks | 8:15 PM | Rams | 24-20 |
| Sat, Dec 20 | Eagles @ Commanders | 5:00 PM | Eagles | 31-17 |
| Sat, Dec 20 | Packers @ Bears | 8:20 PM | Bears | 27-24 |
| Sun, Dec 21 | Buccaneers @ Panthers | 1:00 PM | Buccaneers | 28-24 |
| Sun, Dec 21 | Bills @ Browns | 1:00 PM | Bills | 34-13 |
| Sun, Dec 21 | Chargers @ Cowboys | 1:00 PM | Chargers | 27-23 |
| Sun, Dec 21 | Jets @ Saints | 1:00 PM | Saints | 24-20 |
| Sun, Dec 21 | Vikings @ Giants | 1:00 PM | Vikings | 26-20 |
| Sun, Dec 21 | Chiefs @ Titans | 1:00 PM | Chiefs | 23-17 |
| Sun, Dec 21 | Bengals @ Dolphins | 1:00 PM | Dolphins | 31-24 |
| Sun, Dec 21 | Falcons @ Cardinals | 4:05 PM | Falcons | 27-20 |
| Sun, Dec 21 | Jaguars @ Broncos | 4:05 PM | Broncos | 30-23 |
| Sun, Dec 21 | Steelers @ Lions | 4:25 PM | Lions | 31-24 |
| Sun, Dec 21 | Texans @ Raiders | 4:25 PM | Texans | 30-10 |
| Sun, Dec 21 | Patriots @ Ravens | 8:20 PM | Ravens | 27-24 |
| Mon, Dec 22 | 49ers @ Colts | 8:15 PM | 49ers | 24-17 |
Record Prediction: 11-5
We also made a Free Printable NFL Week 16 Pick’em Sheet for you. Hope you enjoy it.
Thursday Night Football
Los Angeles Rams (11-3) @ Seattle Seahawks (11-3)
Kickoff: Thursday, December 18, 8:15 PM ET
TV: Prime Video
Location: Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
Both teams sit at 11-3 atop the NFC West. The winner takes first place and controls the race for the number one seed.
The Rams won their first meeting 21-19 in Week 11. Sam Darnold threw four picks in that game. Seattle went 1 for 4 in the red zone.
Davante Adams is out with a hamstring injury. Matthew Stafford loses a major weapon. Adams has been huge since joining from the Raiders.
Seattle barely beat the Colts 18-16 last week. Philip Rivers nearly pulled off a comeback. Jason Myers hit a 56-yard field goal to win it.
The Rams lead the NFL in offensive DVOA. Stafford has 35 touchdown passes. Puka Nacua has 93 catches for 1,186 yards.
Seattle’s defense ranks third but has faced an easy schedule. This is a big step up in competition.
Sean McVay is 17-3 in December games. The Rams know how to win late in the season. Stafford makes enough plays to win on the road.
Pick: Rams 24, Seahawks 20
Saturday Games
Philadelphia Eagles (9-5) @ Washington Commanders (4-10)
Kickoff: Saturday, December 20, 5:00 PM ET
TV: FOX
Location: Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD
The Eagles crushed the Raiders 31-0 last week. Jalen Hurts threw three touchdowns. Philadelphia snapped a three-game losing streak.
Washington beat the Giants 29-21 to end an eight-game skid. Jaylin Lane returned a punt for a score. Marcus Mariota hit Terry McLaurin for 51 yards.
The talent gap is too wide. Washington allows 30.4 points and 399.6 yards per game over the last nine weeks. That’s bottom five in the league.
Saquon Barkley ran for 100 yards against Las Vegas. The Eagles found balance on offense. Dallas Goedert caught two red zone touchdowns.
Philadelphia needs this win in the NFC East race. They take care of business on the road.
Pick: Eagles 31, Commanders 17
Green Bay Packers (9-4-1) @ Chicago Bears (10-4)
Kickoff: Saturday, December 20, 8:20 PM ET
TV: FOX
Location: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
The NFC North title gets decided Saturday night. Chicago leads by half a game. A Bears win clinches the division and a playoff berth.
Green Bay has major injury problems. Micah Parsons tore his ACL and is done for the year. Christian Watson is out. Evan Williams is out. Zach Tom is out.
The Bears destroyed Cleveland 31-3 last week. Caleb Williams threw two touchdowns. The defense grabbed three interceptions in the cold.
These teams met two weeks ago. Green Bay won 28-21 but Chicago dominated the second half. The Bears had 244 yards and 18 points after halftime.
Chicago is 4-2 against the spread at home. Green Bay is 2-5 against the spread on the road. The Packers have too many injuries.
Williams leads the Bears to a huge division-clinching win.
Pick: Bears 27, Packers 24
Sunday 1 PM ET Games
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7) @ Carolina Panthers (7-7)
Kickoff: Sunday, December 21, 1:00 PM ET
TV: FOX
Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
The NFC South is chaos. Both teams sit at 7-7 for first place. They meet again in Week 18.
Tampa Bay lost 29-28 to Atlanta on a last-second field goal. Kyle Pitts caught three touchdowns for 152 yards.
Carolina lost 20-17 to New Orleans on a game-winning kick. The Panthers have dropped two straight.
Baker Mayfield plays well on the road. He has 2,722 yards with 20 touchdowns and six interceptions. Tampa Bay is better away from home.
Bryce Young has improved. He has 18 touchdowns against nine picks. Rico Dowdle has 929 rushing yards.
Mayfield makes a big throw late to steal the win.
Pick: Buccaneers 28, Panthers 24
Buffalo Bills (10-4) @ Cleveland Browns (3-11)
Kickoff: Sunday, December 21, 1:00 PM ET
TV: CBS
Location: Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland, OH
Buffalo came back from 21 down to beat New England 35-31. Josh Allen threw four touchdowns. The Bills trail by one game in the AFC East.
Cleveland got crushed 31-3 by Chicago. Shedeur Sanders threw three picks. The Browns have lost four straight.
Cleveland allows 137.9 rushing yards per game over the last seven weeks. James Cook has 1,308 yards and eight touchdowns. He will run wild.
The cold weather favors Buffalo. Sanders will struggle against a top ten pass defense.
Pick: Bills 34, Browns 13
Los Angeles Chargers (10-4) @ Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1)
Kickoff: Sunday, December 21, 1:00 PM ET
TV: FOX
Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
The Chargers knocked Kansas City out of the playoffs with a 16-13 win. Justin Herbert played through a broken left hand.
Dallas lost 34-26 to Minnesota. The Cowboys are eliminated from playoff contention. They have lost three straight.
Los Angeles finds ways to win close games. They are 10-4 with four straight wins.
Herbert had surgery on his hand one week ago. He still beat the Chiefs on the road. Dallas has quit on the season.
Pick: Chargers 27, Cowboys 23
New York Jets (3-11) @ New Orleans Saints (4-10)
Kickoff: Sunday, December 21, 1:00 PM ET
TV: CBS
Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Both teams are out of the playoffs. The Jets lost 48-10 to Jacksonville. Trevor Lawrence threw five touchdowns.
New Orleans upset Carolina 20-17 on a last-second field goal. Tyler Shough hit Chris Olave for a touchdown with 2:29 left.
Shough has completed 70 percent of passes over his last five games. He averages 236 yards per game. The Saints defense allows just 271.4 yards per game during this stretch.
The Jets have given up. New Orleans plays for pride and Shough’s future.
Pick: Saints 24, Jets 20
Minnesota Vikings (6-8) @ New York Giants (2-12)
Kickoff: Sunday, December 21, 1:00 PM ET
TV: FOX
Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Minnesota was eliminated despite beating Dallas 34-26. J.J. McCarthy threw three touchdowns. The Vikings have won two straight.
The Giants lost 29-21 to Washington. Jaxson Dart threw two touchdowns and two picks. New York has lost five in a row.
McCarthy looks better each week. He has led Minnesota to back-to-back wins over NFC East teams.
The Giants defense ranks near the bottom. The Vikings make it three wins in a row.
Pick: Vikings 26, Giants 20
Kansas City Chiefs (6-8) @ Tennessee Titans (2-12)
Kickoff: Sunday, December 21, 1:00 PM ET
TV: CBS
Location: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
Both teams are eliminated. The Chiefs lost 16-13 to the Chargers. Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL late in the game.
Gardner Minshew starts for Kansas City. Mahomes is done for the year. The Chiefs dynasty ends after ten playoff appearances.
Tennessee lost 37-24 to San Francisco. Cam Ward threw two picks. The Titans have lost six of seven.
Kansas City still has pride. Andy Reid will have them ready despite being eliminated. Minshew can manage the game.
Pick: Chiefs 23, Titans 17
Cincinnati Bengals (4-10) @ Miami Dolphins (6-8)
Kickoff: Sunday, December 21, 1:00 PM ET
TV: CBS
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Both teams are eliminated. Cincinnati got shut out 24-0 by Baltimore. Joe Burrow threw two picks in his first career scoreless game.
Miami lost 28-15 to Pittsburgh on Monday night. The Dolphins were eliminated despite winning six of eight earlier.
The Bengals have quit. Their run defense is worst in football over the last eight games. They allow 174.6 rushing yards and 6.1 yards per carry.
Miami has averaged 192.3 rushing yards per game over the last month. De’Von Achane has 1,126 yards and seven touchdowns.
The Dolphins run all over Cincinnati.
Pick: Dolphins 31, Bengals 24
Sunday 4 PM ET Games
Atlanta Falcons (5-9) @ Arizona Cardinals (3-11)
Kickoff: Sunday, December 21, 4:05 PM ET
TV: FOX
Location: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
Atlanta upset Tampa Bay 29-28 on Thursday night. Kyle Pitts had three touchdowns for 152 yards.
Arizona lost 40-10 to Houston. The Cardinals have dropped six straight. They are 1-6 at home.
Trey McBride has 93 catches for 937 yards and eight touchdowns. He can’t do it alone.
The Falcons are playing hard despite being eliminated. Pitts will have another big game.
Pick: Falcons 27, Cardinals 20
Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4) @ Denver Broncos (12-2)
Kickoff: Sunday, December 21, 4:05 PM ET
TV: FOX
Location: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Jacksonville destroyed the Jets 48-10. Trevor Lawrence threw five touchdowns and ran for another. The Jaguars have won five straight.
Denver beat Green Bay 34-26 to clinch a playoff spot. Bo Nix threw four touchdowns. The Broncos have won twelve in a row and are 7-0 at home.
Lawrence looked great against New York. But that was the Jets. This is a massive step up.
Denver’s defense ranks sixth in DVOA. Jacksonville has won mostly against bad teams. Their road wins came against teams that are 10-46 combined.
The Broncos are undefeated at home at altitude. Nix extends the win streak.
Pick: Broncos 30, Jaguars 23
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6) @ Detroit Lions (8-6)
Kickoff: Sunday, December 21, 4:25 PM ET
TV: CBS
Location: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Pittsburgh beat Miami 28-15 on Monday. The Steelers lead the AFC North by one game over Baltimore.
Detroit lost 45-38 to the Rams in a shootout. The Lions are 8-6 and fighting for a wild card.
Pittsburgh’s defense shut down Miami. The pass rush was relentless.
Jared Goff threw four touchdowns against Los Angeles. Jahmyr Gibbs ran for 100 yards. Amon-Ra St. Brown caught two scores.
Detroit is tough at Ford Field. They are 4-3 against the spread at home. The Lions win a shootout.
Pick: Lions 31, Steelers 24
Houston Texans (9-5) @ Las Vegas Raiders (2-12)
Kickoff: Sunday, December 21, 4:25 PM ET
TV: CBS
Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Houston has won seven straight. The Texans crushed Arizona 40-10 last week.
The Texans defense allows just 228 points all season. That’s the best in the NFL.
Las Vegas got shut out 31-0 by Philadelphia. The Raiders are 2-12 with six straight losses. They are 1-6 at home.
Houston dominates both sides. The defense shuts down the Raiders. The offense puts up over 30 points.
Pick: Texans 30, Raiders 10
Sunday Night Football
New England Patriots (11-3) @ Baltimore Ravens (7-7)
Kickoff: Sunday, December 21, 8:20 PM ET
TV: NBC
Location: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
New England’s ten-game win streak ended last week. Buffalo rallied from 21 down to win 35-31. Drake Maye threw for 300 yards but couldn’t stop the comeback.
Baltimore shut out Cincinnati 24-0. Lamar Jackson threw two touchdowns. The defense forced two picks including an 84-yard pick-six.
The stakes are huge. New England controls its destiny in the AFC East. Win out and they are division champions. Buffalo is right behind them.
Baltimore needs to win out and get help to make the playoffs. They are one game behind Pittsburgh at 7-7.
The Patriots are 6-0 on the road. Maye plays well in hostile places. But Baltimore is desperate.
Jackson makes the difference. The defense pressures Maye all night. Baltimore wins a close one under the lights.
Pick: Ravens 27, Patriots 24
Monday Night Football
San Francisco 49ers (10-4) @ Indianapolis Colts (8-6)
Kickoff: Monday, December 22, 8:15 PM ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
San Francisco won its fifth straight. The 49ers beat Tennessee 37-24 as Brock Purdy threw three touchdowns.
Indianapolis lost 18-16 to Seattle. Philip Rivers came out of retirement at age 44. Blake Grupe hit a 60-yard field goal to give the Colts a late lead.
Rivers didn’t have zip on his throws. He doesn’t have the arm strength anymore. The Colts scored just 16 points against a defense missing both starting corners.
Purdy is playing at an MVP level. He has thrown 295 yards and three touchdowns in back-to-back games. Christian McCaffrey has 85 catches and 806 receiving yards.
The 49ers are much better at every position. San Francisco hands Indianapolis its fifth straight loss.
Pick: 49ers 24, Colts 17
Week 16 Storylines to Watch
Division Titles on the Line
Three division races get decided this week. The Rams and Seahawks play Thursday night for the NFC West crown. Both teams are 11-3. The winner takes first place and moves closer to the top seed.
The Bears host the Packers on Saturday for the NFC North title. Chicago is 10-4 and Green Bay is 9-4-1. A Bears win clinches the division. A Packers win puts them in first.
Tampa Bay and Carolina meet Sunday at 7-7. The winner takes the NFC South lead. They play again in Week 18.
Mahomes Injury Fallout
Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL in Week 15. Gardner Minshew takes over for Kansas City. The Chiefs were eliminated from the playoffs for the first time since 2015.
The Chiefs play at Tennessee on Sunday. This game is meaningless for the playoffs. But Kansas City still has pride.
The big question is what happens next. Does Andy Reid retire? Will the Chiefs rebuild? The dynasty ends after ten playoff appearances.
Philip Rivers Comeback
Philip Rivers came out of retirement at 44 to play for Indianapolis. He made his debut last week against Seattle. The Colts lost 18-16 but Rivers nearly pulled off a road upset.
Rivers makes his second start Monday night against San Francisco. He doesn’t have the arm strength anymore. But he still reads defenses well.
The Colts have lost four straight. They are 8-6 and fighting for a playoff spot.
Patriots Fighting Off Bills
New England saw its ten-game win streak end last week. Buffalo rallied from 21 down to win 35-31. The Patriots lead the AFC East by one game.
New England plays at Baltimore on Sunday Night Football. The Ravens are desperate at 7-7. The Patriots must win to maintain control.
Drake Maye has played well as a rookie. He threw for 300 yards against Buffalo. But he couldn’t close the game.
Key Injuries
Micah Parsons – Green Bay Packers
The Packers lost their best defender in Week 15. Parsons tore his ACL against Denver. He is done for the season.
Parsons was Green Bay’s top pass rusher. The defense will struggle without him against Chicago.
Davante Adams – Los Angeles Rams
Adams misses Thursday night with a hamstring injury. This is a huge loss for the Rams offense. Adams has been a big weapon since joining from the Raiders.
Matthew Stafford relies more on Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. The Rams have enough firepower but Adams’ absence hurts.
Christian Watson – Green Bay Packers
Watson is out with a chest injury. He joins Parsons on the sideline. Green Bay is also without Evan Williams and Zach Tom.
The Packers lost their two best defenders and three key offensive players. Jordan Love must carry the team. This is too much to overcome on the road.
Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City Chiefs
Mahomes tore his ACL late in the Week 15 loss. He is done for the season. Gardner Minshew starts the rest of the way.
The Chiefs were already eliminated. Now they lost their franchise quarterback. This is the worst possible ending to a nightmare season.
Playoff Picture Impact
The Broncos and Rams already clinched playoff spots. Several other teams can clinch or be eliminated this week.
The Bears clinch the NFC North with a win over Green Bay. Chicago would secure a first-round bye as the number two seed. A loss puts the Packers in first place.
New England needs to beat Baltimore to stay one game ahead of Buffalo. The Patriots control their destiny. Win out and they are AFC East champions.
Jacksonville can clinch the AFC South with a win and a Houston loss. The Jaguars are 10-4 and lead by one game. They own the tiebreaker.
The Buccaneers and Panthers winner takes control of the NFC South. Both teams are 7-7. The loser falls into a tie with Atlanta at 5-9.
Pittsburgh leads the AFC North by one game over Baltimore. The Steelers play at Detroit while the Ravens host New England. Baltimore must win and hope Pittsburgh loses.
The NFC West race comes down to Thursday night. The Rams and Seahawks are both 11-3. The winner takes first place and the inside track to the number one seed.
