Sam Darnold’s journey to Super Bowl LX is one of the greatest comeback stories in NFL history. The quarterback who once said he was “seeing ghosts” against the Patriots now faces them on football’s biggest stage. Super Bowl LX takes place February 8, 2026 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California.
This guide covers Darnold’s MVP odds, complete 2025-26 season statistics, and expert predictions for the championship game.
Sam Darnold Super Bowl MVP Odds
Sam Darnold is the betting favorite to win Super Bowl LX MVP. Sportsbooks have him at +130 odds after his dominant performance in the NFC Championship Game. A $10 bet on Darnold would return $23 total if he captures the award.
Current Super Bowl LX MVP Odds:
| Player | Position | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | QB | Seahawks | +130 |
| Drake Maye | QB | Patriots | +235 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | Seahawks | +550 |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB | Seahawks | +650 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | Patriots | +2500 |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | Seahawks | +2800 |
These odds make sense for several reasons. The Seahawks are 3.5-point favorites to win the game. Quarterbacks have won Super Bowl MVP 34 times in NFL history, far more than any other position.
Darnold’s odds improved after the NFC Championship. He was co-favored at +600 before the playoffs. His 346-yard, 3-touchdown performance against the Rams moved him to the top.
A running back hasn’t won Super Bowl MVP since Terrell Davis in 1998. Kenneth Walker III has four playoff touchdowns but would need a special performance to win the award.
Sam Darnold 2025-26 Season Stats & Records
Regular Season Performance
Darnold had a solid first season with Seattle. He led the team to a 14-3 record and secured the NFC’s top seed.
2025 Regular Season Statistics:
| Category | Stats | NFL Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Games Played | 17 | – |
| Record as Starter | 14-3 | T-1st |
| Completions/Attempts | 287/424 | – |
| Completion Percentage | 67.7% | 10th |
| Passing Yards | 4,048 | 12th |
| Yards Per Attempt | 8.7 | 6th |
| Passing Touchdowns | 25 | 8th |
| Interceptions | 14 | 27th |
| Passer Rating | 99.1 | 11th |
| QBR | 56.9 | 18th |
Darnold threw for over 230 yards in 10 regular season games. His 8.7 yards per attempt ranked 6th in the NFL. He completed 67.7% of his passes throughout the season.
The 14 interceptions were the main concern. Only two quarterbacks threw more picks. This number became a talking point as Seattle’s defense carried the team down the stretch.
Sam Darnold 2026 Playoff Stats
The playoffs brought out the best version of Sam Darnold. His playoff performance answered all questions about winning big games.
Divisional Round: Seahawks 41, 49ers 6
| Category | Stats |
|---|---|
| Completions/Attempts | 13/22 |
| Passing Yards | 124 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Interceptions | 0 |
The blowout win meant Darnold didn’t need to throw much. Seattle’s defense dominated from start to finish. Darnold managed the game efficiently and avoided mistakes.
NFC Championship: Seahawks 31, Rams 27
| Category | Stats |
|---|---|
| Completions/Attempts | 25/36 |
| Completion Percentage | 69.4% |
| Passing Yards | 346 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Interceptions | 0 |
| QBR | 127.8 |
This was Darnold’s signature performance. The 346 yards were the most he threw for all season with Seattle. Darnold connected with Jaxon Smith-Njigba 10 times for 153 yards and a touchdown.
Combined Playoff Stats:
| Category | Stats |
|---|---|
| Completions/Attempts | 38/58 |
| Completion Percentage | 69.85% |
| Total Passing Yards | 470 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Interceptions | 0 |
The zero interceptions stat tells the story. Darnold threw 14 picks during the regular season but has been turnover-free in the playoffs. His 69.85% playoff completion rate exceeds his 67.7% regular season mark.
Career Highlights at a Glance
Key Records:
- First QB to win 14 games in first season with two teams in consecutive years
- Tied Warren Moon with 17 consecutive completions
- Second consecutive Pro Bowl selection (2024, 2025)
- Led Seahawks to NFC’s #1 seed
Career Numbers:
- 5 NFL teams: Jets, Panthers, 49ers, Vikings, Seahawks
- 100 career games played
- 20,431 career passing yards
- 123 career touchdown passes
Sam Darnold’s Road to Super Bowl LX
The Jets drafted Darnold third overall in 2018 but he went 13-25 as a starter before being traded. The Panthers and 49ers gave him chances but he couldn’t secure starting roles.
Minnesota gave him a shot in 2024. He went 14-3 but the Vikings let him walk for rookie J.J. McCarthy. Seattle signed him to a three-year, $100.5 million deal.
Darnold went 14-3 again and led Seattle to the Super Bowl. The Vikings missed the playoffs. First-year coach Mike Macdonald built the NFL’s best defense to support him.
Now Darnold faces the Patriots who gave him the “seeing ghosts” label in 2019.
Super Bowl 2026 Performance Predictions
Expected Stats
Oddsmakers set Darnold’s passing yardage over/under at 230.5 yards. His projected stats: 230-270 yards, 2-3 touchdowns, 0-1 interceptions, 65-70% completion rate.
The game script will determine his final numbers. Seattle will lean on defense and Kenneth Walker III if they build an early lead. Darnold won’t need huge numbers to win MVP.
Key Strengths
Zero Playoff Turnovers: Darnold has not thrown an interception through two playoff games. His 69.85% completion rate in the playoffs exceeds his 67.7% regular season mark.
Connection with Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Smith-Njigba led all receivers with 1,793 yards during the season. He caught 10 passes for 153 yards in the NFC Championship.
Elite Defense: Seattle ranked first in points allowed. The unit has not committed a turnover in the postseason. Darnold can play conservative because his defense dominates.
Major Concerns
Terrible History vs Patriots: Darnold is 0-4 lifetime against New England. He has thrown 1 touchdown and 9 interceptions against them. His passer rating in those games is just 41.2. His most famous moment came in 2019 when he said he was “seeing ghosts” on the sideline.
Patriots’ Blitz-Heavy Defense: New England has blitzed constantly during the playoffs. Darnold ranked 15th in Pro Football Focus passing grades under pressure during the regular season. The Patriots will test him early with aggressive schemes.
Second-Half Regression: Darnold’s QBR of 56.9 was lower than his 57.3 mark with Minnesota in 2024. The Seahawks kept winning but their defense carried them. Darnold needs to play like he did in the NFC Championship.
The Ultimate Redemption Story
The Jets drafted Darnold third overall in 2018 but he flopped with a 13-25 record. The Panthers and 49ers gave him chances but he couldn’t establish himself.
Minnesota gave him a shot in 2024. He went 14-3 but the Vikings let him walk. Seattle signed him and he delivered another 14-3 season. He became the first QB to win 14 games in his first season with two different teams in consecutive years.
Now he faces the Patriots who gave him the “seeing ghosts” label in 2019. One great performance can rewrite his entire career.
Final Prediction
The Seahawks win 27-20. Seattle’s elite defense limits Drake Maye and the Patriots to under 21 points. Darnold throws for 245 yards with 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.
He wins Super Bowl MVP and completes one of the best comeback stories in NFL history.
Sam Darnold Super Bowl 2026 FAQs
What are Sam Darnold’s MVP odds for Super Bowl 2026?
Sam Darnold is the favorite at +130 odds. A $10 bet would return $23 total if he wins. Drake Maye is second at +235 odds.
How did Sam Darnold perform in the 2025 season?
Darnold threw for 4,048 yards with 25 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. He completed 67.7% of his passes and led the Seahawks to a 14-3 record.
Has Sam Darnold ever won a Super Bowl?
No. This will be his first Super Bowl appearance as a starting quarterback. He was a backup for the 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII but did not play.
Who is favored to win Super Bowl 2026?
The Seattle Seahawks are 3.5-point favorites over the New England Patriots. Most experts predict a Seahawks victory.
