The Denver Broncos survived a 33-30 overtime thriller against the Buffalo Bills on Saturday. They reached the AFC Championship Game for the first time in 10 years. But celebration turned to shock minutes later. Star quarterback Bo Nix fractured his ankle in the final seconds. His season ended just as the biggest game arrived.
Backup Jarrett Stidham takes over now. The Broncos host either the Houston Texans or New England Patriots on Sunday January 25 at 3:00 PM Eastern Time. The winner advances to Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara on February 8.
Disclaimer: We will update our predictions after the Patriots vs Texans divisional round game concludes on Sunday January 18. Check back for our final AFC Championship analysis once Denver’s opponent is confirmed.
The Road to the AFC Championship
Denver’s Journey
Denver earned the AFC’s top seed with a 14-3 record. Their defense ranked third in the NFL by allowing just 18.3 points per game. The Broncos set a franchise record with 68 sacks this season. They won 11 games by one score or less. Bo Nix led a franchise-record 12 comeback victories before his injury.
The divisional round against Buffalo delivered pure drama. Josh Allen forced overtime with a clutch field goal drive. But Allen threw four turnovers including a critical interception in overtime. Nix threw for 279 yards and three touchdowns before disaster struck. The defense forced five total turnovers.
The injury happened fast. Nix ran left on a sweep and took a routine tackle for a two-yard loss. He limped slightly after. On the next play he knelt to center the ball for the game-winning field goal. His right foot buckled underneath him. Doctors confirmed a fractured ankle after the game. Surgery is scheduled for Tuesday.
Jarrett Stidham steps in now. The 28-year-old has limited starting experience with 11 career games and just five starts. Stidham spent three years with the Patriots before stops in Las Vegas and Denver. He completed 61.5% of his career passes for 1,086 yards with five touchdowns and three interceptions. This marks his first playoff start.
Patriots vs Texans Showdown
The Houston Texans visit the New England Patriots on Sunday at 3:00 PM Eastern Time. This game determines Denver’s opponent.
Houston enters on a 10-game winning streak. The Texans started 0-3 then everything clicked. Their defense leads the NFL in total yards allowed at 277.2 per game and ranks second in points allowed at 17.4 per game. Pass rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter combined for 27 sacks. Cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. locks down top receivers.
The Texans crushed Pittsburgh 30-6 in the wild card round. Their defense scored two touchdowns and held Aaron Rodgers to 175 total yards. Quarterback C.J. Stroud struggled with ball security though. He threw one interception and lost two fumbles. Houston plays without top receiver Nico Collins who remains in concussion protocol. Veteran Christian Kirk caught eight passes for 144 yards against the Steelers and must deliver again.
New England went 14-3 in Mike Vrabel’s first year as head coach. Second-year quarterback Drake Maye emerged as a star who makes plays with his arm and legs. The Patriots crushed the Chargers 16-3 in the wild card round. Their defense recorded six sacks and held Los Angeles to three points. Maye threw for 268 yards and rushed for 66 more. Running back Rhamondre Stevenson scored in three of his last four games. Cornerback Christian Gonzalez cleared concussion protocol for Sunday.
Most experts pick Houston to advance. Their elite defense travels well and the 10-game streak proves they win big games.
AFC Championship Game Details
The title game kicks off Sunday January 25 at 3:00 PM Eastern Time on CBS. Fans can stream on Paramount+ for $8.99 monthly with ads or $13.99 without. Jim Nantz calls the action with Tony Romo analyzing.
Empower Field at Mile High in Denver hosts the game. The stadium sits one mile above sea level at 5,280 feet. This altitude creates a massive advantage. Visiting players exhaust by the fourth quarter in thin air. The altitude makes kicks and passes travel farther. Denver owns a 17-5 playoff record at home.
The stadium holds 76,125 fans who create Mile High Thunder by stomping their feet. January brings cold temperatures and possible snow. Denver last hosted a playoff game in 2015 when Peyton Manning led them past Tom Brady’s Patriots.
Breaking Down the Matchups
Broncos vs Patriots
New England brings a dangerous offense led by Drake Maye. His dual-threat ability stresses defenses. The Patriots scored the second-most points in the NFL this season. Mike Vrabel’s coaching experience matters in big moments. Their offensive line has two rookie starters facing a huge test.
Denver counters with elite defense and altitude. The thin air drains opponents. The Broncos control the clock with their running game. Their defense excels in the red zone where teams struggle to score.
The key battle puts New England’s line against Denver’s pass rush. Those 68 sacks came from constant pressure. The Patriots must protect Maye or their offense dies. Courtland Sutton needs to win against Christian Gonzalez.
Denver wins 20-17. The altitude factor decides it late. Stidham manages without mistakes and the defense forces two turnovers.
Broncos vs Texans
Houston features the NFL’s best defense. Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter destroy quarterbacks. Derek Stingley Jr. shuts down receivers. Safety Calen Bullock scored on an interception return against Pittsburgh. This unit dominates.
Denver matches up well defensively. Both rank top three in points allowed. This creates a battle between elite stop units. The Broncos get the edge with altitude and crowd noise. Sean Payton simplifies things for Stidham with quick passes and running plays.
The critical matchup puts Jarrett Stidham against Houston’s elite secondary. Stidham faces the toughest test of his career. The Texans disguise coverages and bait quarterbacks into mistakes. Denver must establish the run early. C.J. Stroud needs to protect the football after his three-turnover game against Pittsburgh.
Christian Kirk becomes crucial with Nico Collins out. He must beat double coverage. The Texans running game keeps drives alive.
This becomes the most likely matchup. Houston wins 19-16 and reaches their first Super Bowl in franchise history.
The Bo Nix Factor
The injury changed everything for Denver. Nix threw for over 3,500 yards with 28 touchdowns during the regular season. His mobility kept defenses honest. Those 12 comeback wins showed his poise. The Broncos lost their most important player at the worst time.
Stidham must manage the game without turnovers. One mistake could end Denver’s season. The Broncos lean on their defense and running game now. Sean Payton ranks among the best offensive minds in football. He creates a simple game plan protecting his backup.
Super Bowl odds shifted dramatically. Denver dropped from +325 to +900. The Texans became AFC favorites at +200. History offers mixed results for backup quarterbacks. Jeff Hostetler won a Super Bowl with the Giants in 1990. Nick Foles won with the Eagles in 2017. Both played at extremely high levels. Stidham faces elite competition with limited preparation.
Key Players to Watch
Jarrett Stidham carries Denver’s hopes. He must avoid turnovers and make smart decisions. One bad throw ends the season.
Courtland Sutton becomes the top target. The veteran receiver caught 74 passes for 1,017 yards this season. He needs his best game against elite coverage.
C.J. Stroud must bounce back for Houston. He doesn’t need perfection but cannot turn the ball over.
Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter should dominate against a backup quarterback. Their pass rush creates pressure on every snap.
Christian Kirk replaces Nico Collins as Houston’s number one receiver. He needs another big performance like his 144-yard game against Pittsburgh.
Drake Maye gives New England the best chance to upset Houston. His ability to extend plays creates opportunities. Rhamondre Stevenson must establish the run.
Path to Super Bowl LX
The winner faces either Seattle or San Francisco or Los Angeles or Chicago in Super Bowl LX on February 8. The game kicks off at 6:30 PM Eastern Time on NBC at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara.
No repeat champion is possible. The Eagles lost in the wild card round. Either a first-time champion emerges or a team returns after years away. The Texans seek their first Super Bowl appearance ever. Denver hasn’t been back since 2015. New England tries to rebuild with a new generation.
Final Prediction
Houston defeats Denver 19-16 in a defensive war. The Texans reach Super Bowl LX for the first time ever. C.J. Stroud plays mistake-free football while his defense dominates. Jarrett Stidham performs well but Denver manages just three field goals.
Red zone efficiency decides the outcome. Turnovers matter most where every possession counts. The altitude wears on Houston late but their talent wins. Will Anderson Jr. records two sacks and Derek Stingley Jr. makes a crucial late interception. The Texans defense creates just enough plays to advance.
Tune in Sunday January 25 at 3:00 PM Eastern Time on CBS to watch the AFC Champion get crowned.
