Week 10 is complete. The playoff race intensifies with shocking upsets reshaping both conferences. Three teams share the NFL’s best record at 8-2. Every victory carries massive playoff implications.
Updated: After Week 10 (November 11, 2025), 2025 season
Current NFL Playoff Picture Overview
Fourteen teams make the postseason with seven from each conference. The top seed gets a first round bye and home field advantage.
The Colts, Broncos, and Patriots all stand at 8-2, tied for the NFL’s best record. The Eagles (7-2) strengthened their hold on the NFC’s No. 1 seed after beating Green Bay on Monday Night Football. Major upsets reshaped both conferences as the Bills fell to Miami and the Jaguars blew a 19-point lead at Houston.
AFC Playoff Picture 2025
The AFC features a three-way tie at 8-2 between Indianapolis, Denver, and New England. The wild card race remains crowded with multiple teams fighting for position.
AFC Current Standings
| Seed | Team | Record | Division | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colts | 8-2 | AFC South | 93% |
| 2 | Broncos | 8-2 | AFC West | 92% |
| 3 | Patriots | 8-2 | AFC East | 96% |
| 4 | Steelers | 5-4 | AFC North | 39% |
| 5 | Chargers | 7-3 | AFC West | 82% |
| 6 | Bills | 6-3 | AFC East | 85% |
| 7 | Jaguars | 5-4 | AFC South | 40% |
In the Hunt: Chiefs 5-4 (66%), Ravens 4-5 (73%), Texans 4-5 (31%)
The Colts rallied to beat Atlanta 31-25 in overtime in Berlin, maintaining their No. 1 seed based on conference record tiebreaker. Indianapolis controls the AFC South with a three-game lead over Jacksonville. Jonathan Taylor rushed for 244 yards and three touchdowns, including an 83-yard scoring run late in regulation.
Denver remains at 8-2 after Thursday’s 10-7 win over Las Vegas. The Broncos have won seven straight games and own the NFL’s longest current winning streak. Their defense leads with 46 sacks through 10 games, the most by any team through 10 games since 1990.
New England secured its eighth consecutive victory with a 28-23 road upset over Tampa Bay. The Patriots lead the AFC East by two games and boast 96% playoff odds, highest in the conference. Drake Maye threw for 270 yards and two touchdowns while rookie TreVeyon Henderson rushed for 147 yards and two scores.
Pittsburgh dropped to 5-4 after losing 25-10 to the Chargers on Sunday Night Football. The Steelers’ playoff probability fell to just 39% despite leading the AFC North by one game over Baltimore.
Los Angeles dominated Pittsburgh and improved to 7-3, jumping to 82% playoff odds. The Chargers hold the No. 5 seed and trail Denver by one game in the AFC West.
Buffalo suffered a shocking 30-13 home loss to Miami, dropping to 6-3. The Bills now trail New England by two games in the AFC East race despite maintaining 85% playoff odds.
Jacksonville blew a 29-10 fourth-quarter lead and lost 36-29 to Houston in a devastating collapse. The Jaguars hold the final playoff spot at 5-4 but their odds dropped to just 40%.
NFC Playoff Picture 2025
The NFC features intense competition with multiple teams at 6-3 or better. Division races remain tight across the conference.
NFC Current Standings
| Seed | Team | Record | Division | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eagles | 7-2 | NFC East | 99% |
| 2 | Seahawks | 7-2 | NFC West | 94% |
| 3 | Lions | 6-3 | NFC North | 87% |
| 4 | Buccaneers | 6-3 | NFC South | 90% |
| 5 | Rams | 7-2 | NFC West | 98% |
| 6 | Bears | 6-3 | NFC North | 40% |
| 7 | Packers | 5-3-1 | NFC North | 70% |
In the Hunt: 49ers 6-4 (76%), Vikings 4-5 (18%), Panthers 5-5 (14%)
Philadelphia secured a hard-fought 10-7 victory over Green Bay on Monday Night Football, improving to 7-2. The Eagles command the NFC with 99% playoff probability and control of the NFC East.
Seattle dominated Arizona 44-22, moving to 7-2 and taking over the No. 2 seed. Sam Darnold threw four first-half touchdowns as the Seahawks posted 94% playoff odds and lead the NFC West on division record.
Detroit crushed Washington 44-22 behind Jared Goff’s 320 passing yards and three touchdowns. The Lions lead the NFC North at 6-3 with 87% playoff probability.
Tampa Bay fell to 6-3 after their upset loss to New England. The Buccaneers maintain the No. 4 seed and lead the NFC South with 90% playoff odds.
Los Angeles demolished San Francisco 42-26 as Matthew Stafford continues his historic run. The Rams improved to 7-2 with 98% playoff probability. Stafford threw four touchdown passes for the third consecutive game, extending his record to 21 touchdown passes without an interception over six games.
Chicago rallied for a 24-20 victory over the Giants, moving to 6-3. The Bears jumped into the No. 6 playoff spot but hold just 40% odds in the ultra-competitive NFC North.
Green Bay dropped to 5-3-1 after Monday’s loss to Philadelphia. The Packers fell to third in the NFC North but maintain 70% playoff probability as the current No. 7 seed.
Looking for expert predictions? Check out our NFL Week 11 Picks for game-by-game analysis and winner predictions.
Wild Card Race and Tiebreakers
Tiebreakers decide seeds each week: head to head, conference record, common opponents, then strength of victory.
Key Tiebreakers:
- Colts win three-way AFC tie at 8-2 on superior conference record (6-1)
- Broncos hold No. 2 over Patriots on conference record (5-2 vs 4-2)
- Eagles dominate NFC with commanding conference record (6-1)
- Seahawks edge Rams for No. 2 on division record tiebreaker (2-1 vs 1-1)
- Lions lead NFC North over Bears on head-to-head tiebreaker
- Bears hold No. 6 over Packers on better overall record
Projected Playoff Bracket (If the Season Ended Today)
AFC Matchups
- (2) Broncos vs (7) Jaguars
- (3) Patriots vs (6) Bills
- (4) Steelers vs (5) Chargers
- Bye: Colts
NFC Matchups
- (2) Seahawks vs (7) Packers
- (3) Lions vs (6) Bears
- (4) Buccaneers vs (5) Rams
- Bye: Eagles
Week 10 Results That Moved Seeds
Major Upsets:
- Dolphins 30, Bills 13 – Buffalo suffers shocking home loss
- Patriots 28, Buccaneers 23 – New England extends streak to eight
- Texans 36, Jaguars 29 – Houston rallies from 29-10 fourth-quarter deficit
Statement Wins:
- Colts 31, Falcons 25 (OT) – Taylor rushes for 244 yards in Berlin
- Seahawks 44, Cardinals 22 – Darnold throws four TDs
- Rams 42, 49ers 26 – Stafford continues historic streak
- Lions 44, Commanders 22 – Detroit dominates
- Chargers 25, Steelers 10 – LA controls Sunday Night Football
- Eagles 10, Packers 7 – Philadelphia wins defensive battle
Division Race Snapshot
AFC East: Patriots lead Bills by two games
AFC North: Steelers lead Ravens by one game at 5-4
AFC South: Colts dominate at 8-2, three games ahead of Jaguars
AFC West: Broncos lead Chargers by one game at 8-2
NFC East: Eagles command at 7-2 with massive division lead
NFC North: Lions lead at 6-3; Bears second at 6-3, Packers third at 5-3-1
NFC South: Buccaneers lead at 6-3 over Panthers (5-5)
NFC West: Seahawks and Rams tied at 7-2
Key Storylines
Three-Way Tie Atop AFC
The Colts, Broncos, and Patriots all stand at 8-2, creating the tightest race for top seeds in years. Indianapolis holds the No. 1 seed on conference record tiebreaker. All three teams boast playoff odds above 90% and control their postseason destinies heading into the final eight weeks.
Bills Stunned by Dolphins
Buffalo’s shocking 30-13 home loss to Miami represents one of the season’s biggest upsets. The Bills managed just one touchdown through three quarters against a 2-6 Dolphins team. Buffalo now trails New England by two games and faces an uphill battle to win the division.
Jaguars’ Epic Collapse
Jacksonville led Houston 29-10 in the fourth quarter before allowing 26 unanswered points in a devastating 36-29 loss. The Jaguars were 64-0 all-time when leading by 18 or more points until this historic meltdown. Their playoff odds crashed to just 40%.
Seahawks Surge to No. 2 Seed
Seattle’s 44-22 demolition of Arizona moved them to 7-2 and the No. 2 seed in the NFC. Sam Darnold threw four first-half touchdowns and has emerged as an MVP candidate. The Seahawks’ 94% playoff odds reflect their status as NFC contenders.
Stafford Makes NFL History
Matthew Stafford extended his historic streak to 21 touchdown passes without an interception over six games, making NFL history as the first quarterback with 20-plus TD passes and zero interceptions in any six-game span within a season.
Eight weeks remain. Every game carries playoff weight. The race for Super Bowl LX intensifies weekly.
