NFL Week 5 Picks 2026: Game-by-Game Predictions & Winners

NFL Week 5 picks 2026 cover all 15 games, from Buccaneers at Cowboys on Thursday night to Bills at Rams on Monday. Every game gets a straight up winner, the injury news that matters and a short reason why.

Week 5 brings the first byes of the season, with the Panthers and Chiefs off, and a second straight London kickoff at 9:30 a.m. ET. Quarterbacks are still the story: Tampa Bay starts undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels again, Tyson Bagent starts for Chicago, Washington expects Jayden Daniels back, and Baltimore may be without Lamar Jackson.

Three teams are still unbeaten after Week 4: the Chiefs, 49ers and Vikings. We went 11 and 5 in Week 4, and our season record is 41 and 23. Records and injury news below are current through Tuesday, October 6.

For every kickoff time and channel, see the NFL Week 5 schedule 2026. These are fan predictions for entertainment only.

Thursday Night Football Pick

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys, 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video

Tampa Bay is 0 and 4 after a 17 to 14 loss to Green Bay. Jalon Daniels completed 19 of 27 passes for 148 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions in his first start and ran for 55 yards. Baker Mayfield (dislocated thumb) remains out, and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. has a rib fracture.

Dallas is 2 and 2 after a 34 to 30 comeback in Houston. CeeDee Lamb set a franchise record with 17 catches for 189 yards and caught the winning 12 yard touchdown with 40 seconds left, and Dak Prescott threw for 335 yards. Cornerback Cobie Durant (hamstring) is out again. Prescott and Lamb at home against a rookie on a short week is the clearest edge of the night.

Pick: Cowboys

Sunday, October 11: London Game Pick (9:30 a.m. ET)

Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars, 9:30 a.m. ET on NFL Network, Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London

Jacksonville is the home team and stays in London afterward to host Houston at Wembley in Week 6. The Jaguars are 3 and 1 after a 22 to 17 win in Cincinnati, where the defense picked off Joe Burrow twice even as he threw for 428 yards.

Philadelphia is 2 and 2 after a 24 to 20 loss to the Rams. Saquon Barkley hurt his hamstring early in that game and is week to week, Tank Bigsby needs core muscle surgery, and DeVonta Smith (hamstring) could miss multiple weeks. Dallas Goedert, Marquise Brown and Zack Baun are also banged up. Jacksonville is healthier and playing better.

Pick: Jaguars

Sunday, October 11: Early Game Picks (1:00 p.m. ET)

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (FOX)

Ben Johnson confirmed Caleb Williams (Grade 2 hamstring from Week 2) will not play, and Tyson Bagent starts again. ESPN reported a three to four week timeline for Williams. Bagent went 25 of 34 for 268 yards in a 23 to 12 win over the Jets, and Kyle Monangai ran 30 times for 146 yards and two touchdowns. Chicago had 34 first downs and never punted.

Green Bay is 2 and 2 after a 17 to 14 win in Tampa Bay that was closer than it should have been. Josh Jacobs remains on the commissioner exempt list, Jayden Reed is on injured reserve for the season and Micah Parsons (ACL) has not returned to practice. The Bears are 3 and 1 and playing the more complete football in this rivalry.

Pick: Bears

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins (FOX)

Cincinnati is 2 and 2 after a 22 to 17 loss to Jacksonville. Joe Burrow threw for 428 yards but also two interceptions. Ja’Marr Chase is in the concussion protocol, and Tee Higgins, who caught 11 passes for 157 yards in his place, is day to day with an adductor injury.

Miami is 0 and 4 after a 15 to 10 loss in Minnesota and lost De’Von Achane to a torn ACL for the season. Cornerback Reese Taylor (quad) is out. Even with its receivers banged up, Cincinnati has the better quarterback by a wide margin.

Pick: Bengals

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (FOX)

Minnesota is 4 and 0 after a 15 to 10 win over Miami, with Will Reichard scoring all 15 points and T.J. Hockenson catching 13 passes for 119 yards. Kevin O’Connell is unsure whether Justin Jefferson (ankle) plays, and the Vikings have a bye in Week 6. Guard Donovan Jackson (torn meniscus) is out.

New Orleans is 1 and 3 after a 45 to 24 loss to Atlanta on Monday night, and it plays on a short week. Linebacker Kaden Elliss and defensive end Carl Granderson are banged up, and Travis Etienne Jr. is on injured reserve. The Vikings defense travels.

Pick: Vikings

New York Giants at Washington Commanders (FOX)

Dan Quinn said the goal is for Jayden Daniels (dislocated left elbow) to take a full week of practice and start, wearing a brace. Washington needs him: Marcus Mariota sprained his MCL in the 30 to 13 loss to Indianapolis in London, and seventh round rookie Athan Kaliakmanis finished the game. The Commanders are 1 and 3.

The Giants are 3 and 1 after a 36 to 24 win over Arizona, with Jameis Winston leading the offense and Deonte Banks returning an interception 98 yards for a touchdown. They are playing well without Jaxson Dart and Brian Burns. This is our upset pick: Daniels back at home is the difference, but only if he plays.

Pick: Commanders

Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots (CBS)

New England is 2 and 2 after handing Buffalo its first loss, 29 to 26. Drake Maye threw for 269 yards and three touchdowns and ran for 54 more, a huge rebound from his Week 3 struggles. Receiver Mack Hollins (calf) is hurt, and Christian Gonzalez and Christian Barmore (both shoulder) are still on the report.

Las Vegas is 3 and 1 after a 30 to 27 loss in Kansas City, and now travels east for a 1:00 p.m. kickoff. Receiver Jalen Nailor is in the concussion protocol and center Jackson Powers-Johnson (groin) is hurt. We are changing this pick to the Patriots at home with Maye rolling.

Pick: Patriots

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets (CBS)

Cleveland is 3 and 1 and in first place in the AFC North after beating Pittsburgh 27 to 24 on a 56 yard Andre Szmyt field goal. Deshaun Watson has led three straight fourth quarter comebacks, and the Browns get extra rest after a Thursday game. Defensive tackle Mason Graham has an MCL sprain.

The Jets are 1 and 3 after a 23 to 12 loss in Chicago in which they managed only seven first downs. Breece Hall (quad), Mason Taylor (thumb) and Adonai Mitchell (finger) are still hurt. The Browns defense is the best unit on the field.

Pick: Browns

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (CBS)

Pittsburgh is 2 and 2 after the Thursday loss in Cleveland, so it has extra rest. Aaron Rodgers threw for 299 yards and three touchdowns in that game, though running back Rico Dowdle (toe) and cornerback Jamel Dean (ankle) are on the report.

Indianapolis is 2 and 2 after a 30 to 13 win over Washington in London, with DeForest Buckner leading the defense. But Daniel Jones has seven turnovers through four games, pass rusher Arden Key (hamstring) is out, and the Colts come off a trip to London. The rest gap favors the Steelers.

Pick: Steelers

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (CBS)

Both teams are 0 and 4. Houston blew a fourth quarter lead and lost 34 to 30 to Dallas, as CeeDee Lamb caught the winning touchdown with 40 seconds left. Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair (groin) is still hurt.

Tennessee lost 24 to 18 in Baltimore and has not won since last season. This is one of the last games at the current Nissan Stadium before the Titans move next door in 2027. Houston has more talent on both sides.

Pick: Texans

Sunday, October 11: Late Game Picks (4:05 and 4:25 p.m. ET)

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)

Denver is 2 and 2 after a 24 to 14 loss in San Francisco, and it got hurt in that game. Cornerback Pat Surtain II (ankle sprain) and receiver Pat Bryant (ankle) are out, and cornerback Riley Moss has a rib injury.

The Chargers are 0 and 4 after a 30 to 23 loss in Seattle, and their injury list is worse. Left tackle Rashawn Slater (high ankle sprain) and tight end Charlie Kolar are out, Ladd McConkey (foot) and Derwin James Jr. (hamstring) are week to week, and Joe Alt (neck) is on the report. Denver’s defense, even without Surtain, is the steadier unit.

Pick: Broncos

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)

San Francisco is 4 and 0 after beating Denver 24 to 14, and its offensive line has not allowed a sack all season. Fullback Kyle Juszczyk (knee) is out two to three weeks, and Nick Bosa (calf) is still on the report.

Seattle, the defending champion, is 3 and 1 after a 30 to 23 win over the Chargers, with Emanuel Wilson totaling 120 yards and two touchdowns. Defensive tackle Leonard Williams (ankle) is the one to watch. Lumen Field makes this the closest call of the week, but the 49ers have been the better team.

Pick: 49ers

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)

Detroit is 2 and 2 after a 32 to 26 loss in Carolina, where Tetairoa McMillan caught 14 passes for 192 yards and two touchdowns against a depleted secondary. Cornerback Rock Ya-Sin (hamstring) is out, and Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch have also been missing.

Arizona is 1 and 3 after a 36 to 24 loss to the Giants, and rookie running back Jeremiyah Love (ankle) is on the report. Jared Goff and the Detroit offense should bounce back against a struggling defense.

Pick: Lions

Sunday Night Football Pick

Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons, 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock

Baltimore is 3 and 1 after a 24 to 18 win over Tennessee, but Lamar Jackson sprained his ankle in the second quarter. NFL Network reports he has only an outside chance to play, so Tyler Huntley would make his first start of the season. Marlon Humphrey (calf), Ronnie Stanley (toe) and Trey Hendrickson (finger) are also on the report.

Atlanta is 2 and 2 after crushing New Orleans 45 to 24 on Monday night. Bijan Robinson ran for 145 yards and two touchdowns, and Brian Robinson Jr. added three more. With Jackson unlikely, we are changing this pick to the Falcons at home.

Pick: Falcons

Monday Night Football Pick

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams, 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN and ABC

Buffalo is 3 and 1 after a 29 to 26 loss to New England, in which a late Josh Allen interception proved costly. DJ Moore aggravated his shoulder injury, though it is not considered long term, and Keon Coleman stepped up with 6 catches for 115 yards.

The Rams are 2 and 2 after scoring 14 fourth quarter points to win 24 to 20 in Philadelphia, though Matthew Stafford has now thrown six interceptions. Puka Nacua is back. Buffalo has the extra edge at quarterback and should bounce back.

Pick: Bills

NFL Week 5 Picks 2026: Quick Recap Table

Date	Matchup	Time (ET)	TV	Pick
Thu, Oct 8	Buccaneers (0-4) at Cowboys (2-2)	8:15 PM	Prime Video	Cowboys
Sun, Oct 11	Eagles (2-2) at Jaguars (3-1), London	9:30 AM	NFL Network	Jaguars
Sun, Oct 11	Bears (3-1) at Packers (2-2)	1:00 PM	FOX	Bears
Sun, Oct 11	Bengals (2-2) at Dolphins (0-4)	1:00 PM	FOX	Bengals
Sun, Oct 11	Vikings (4-0) at Saints (1-3)	1:00 PM	FOX	Vikings
Sun, Oct 11	Giants (3-1) at Commanders (1-3)	1:00 PM	FOX	Commanders
Sun, Oct 11	Raiders (3-1) at Patriots (2-2)	1:00 PM	CBS	Patriots
Sun, Oct 11	Browns (3-1) at Jets (1-3)	1:00 PM	CBS	Browns
Sun, Oct 11	Colts (2-2) at Steelers (2-2)	1:00 PM	CBS	Steelers
Sun, Oct 11	Texans (0-4) at Titans (0-4)	1:00 PM	CBS	Texans
Sun, Oct 11	Broncos (2-2) at Chargers (0-4)	4:05 PM	CBS	Broncos
Sun, Oct 11	49ers (4-0) at Seahawks (3-1)	4:25 PM	FOX	49ers
Sun, Oct 11	Lions (2-2) at Cardinals (1-3)	4:25 PM	FOX	Lions
Sun, Oct 11	Ravens (3-1) at Falcons (2-2), SNF	8:20 PM	NBC	Falcons
Mon, Oct 12	Bills (3-1) at Rams (2-2), MNF	8:15 PM	ESPN, ABC	Bills

Home teams: 6. Road teams: 9. Upset: Commanders over Giants. Changed after Week 4: Patriots over Raiders and Falcons over Ravens. Closest calls: 49ers at Seahawks, Giants at Commanders and Ravens at Falcons. Bye: Panthers and Chiefs.

Running a pool? Print the free NFL Week 5 pick’em sheet. Week 5 has 15 games because the Panthers and Chiefs are on bye. See all 32 dates in our NFL bye weeks guide.

How Our Week 4 Picks Did

We went 11 and 5 in Week 4. Correct: Browns, Ravens, Bears, Jaguars, Cowboys, Packers, Vikings, Chiefs, Seahawks, 49ers and Falcons. Wrong: Commanders, Bills, Cardinals, Eagles and Lions. The Cardinals upset pick missed, and the Patriots and Panthers pulled the biggest surprises of the week. Our season record is 41 and 23 after going 12 and 4 in Week 1, 8 and 8 in Week 2 and 10 and 6 in Week 3. See every result on our NFL Week 4 picks page.

Week 5 Injury Watch: Statuses That Shape the Picks

• Quarterbacks: Caleb Williams (CHI, hamstring) will not play, Tyson Bagent starts. Jayden Daniels (WAS, elbow) is expected to start after a full week of practice, with Marcus Mariota (MCL sprain) hurt. Lamar Jackson (BAL, ankle sprain) has an outside chance to play, Tyler Huntley would start. Baker Mayfield (TB, thumb) remains out, Jalon Daniels starts.
• Out: Pat Surtain II and Pat Bryant (DEN), Rashawn Slater and Charlie Kolar (LAC), Antoine Winfield Jr. (TB), Cobie Durant (DAL), Kyle Juszczyk (SF), Rock Ya-Sin (DET), Donovan Jackson (MIN), Arden Key (IND), Reese Taylor (MIA).
• Week to week or uncertain: Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert (PHI), Justin Jefferson (MIN), Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins (CIN), Ladd McConkey and Derwin James Jr. (LAC), DJ Moore (BUF), Nick Bosa (SF), Mason Graham (CLE).
• Out for the season or on injured reserve: De’Von Achane (MIA), Brian Burns (NYG), Jayden Higgins (HOU), Jayden Reed (GB), Ricky Pearsall (SF), Travis Etienne Jr. (NO), Tank Bigsby (PHI), Tyquan Thornton (KC).
• Not playing: Josh Jacobs (GB) remains on the commissioner exempt list, A.J. Brown (NE) is not eligible until Week 6 and Micah Parsons (GB, ACL) has not returned to practice.

Teams release their first Week 5 practice reports on Wednesday, and the Cowboys and Buccaneers file their final report that day for Thursday night. Check the official NFL injury report before you lock your picks.

FAQs About NFL Week 5 Picks 2026

NFL Week 5 picks 2026 come down to quarterback health. The Cowboys, Vikings and Browns are our strongest calls, Commanders over Giants is the upset, and 49ers at Seahawks is the game of the week. Check Jayden Daniels, Lamar Jackson and Justin Jefferson on the Week 5 practice reports before you lock in your sheet.

Catch up on our Week 4 picks and Week 3 picks. We add each Week 5 result here as games finish.